ERIC DIER was far from impressed with EA Sports after his FIFA 20 rating dropped to 79.The Tottenham ace and his team-mate Davinson Sanchez revealed each other’s new rating for the hugely popular game that was released on September 24.4 Eric Dier was far from impressed with his FIFA 20 ratingCredit: Twitter @SpursOfficialDier, 25, has struggled to cement his place in Mauricio Pochettino’s side after struggling with a hip injury.He started 18 league matches last season and the arrival of Tanguy Ndombele appears to have made his task of earning a regular run of games even more unlikely.And it could be a reason why his rating has dropped from 80.It appears even the player himself was braced for the disappointment.Before the ratings were even revealed, Dier said: “I know mine is going to be disrespectful.”After guessing his score wouldn’t change from last year, Dier looked more than disappointed as Davinson revealed the number 79.One fan even joked that he was about to cry after appearing to wipe his eye.He said: “FIFA made Eric cry.”Another supporter added: “Dier’s fuming.”A third chimed: “@ericdier should have been higher!!!”Dier even vented his frustration after Sanchez was given just 74 for his pace.4Dier and Sanchez’s full FIFA 20 ratingsSanchezOverall: 83Pace: 74Shooting: 45Passing: 56Dribbles: 67Defending: 83Physical: 81DierOverall: 79Pace: 54Shooting: 63Passing: 71Dribbles: 65Defending: 80Physical: 84 most read in footballTHROUGH ITRobbie Keane reveals Claudine’s father was ’50-50′ in coronavirus battleTOP SELLERGavin Whelan has gone from League of Ireland to David Beckham’s InstagramExclusiveRIYAD RAIDMan City’s Riyad Mahrez has three luxury watches stolen in £500,000 raidPicturedAN EYEFULMeet Playboy model and football agent Anamaria Prodan bidding to buy her own clubI SAW ROORodallega saw Rooney ‘drinking like madman’ & Gerrard ‘on bar dancing shirtless’NEXT STEPJonny Hayes set to move to English Championship having been let go by CelticREF RELEASEDChampions League ref Vincic released by cops after arrest in prostitution raidKEANE DEALEx Man United youth ace David Jones says Roy Keane negotiated a contract for himREF RAIDChampions League ref Vincic ‘arrested in raid into drugs and prostitution ring’STIR IT UPBohemians post cryptic response to FIFA promoting a jersey with Bob Marley on itHe said: “A message to EA Sports, I think they can do a lot better with Davinson’s score.”This is not real (pointing to his pace).”That’s not true, not true. It’s wrong, just wrong.”The Colombian added: “See, FIFA is always against me!”4 The midfielder has been struggling with injury this seasonCredit: Twitter @SpursOfficial4 Both players were left baffled at Sanchez’s pace on the gameCredit: Twitter @SpursOfficialFIFA 20 – Ratings trailer
An ex-policeman of Unity Place, North Ruimveldt, Georgetown and his accomplice were on Friday last arrested after they were positively identified by a gold miner whom they robbed of his jewellery on Old Year’s Day.According to information received, the suspects attacked the victim at Republic Avenue, Mackenzie, Linden where they gunbutted him and relieved him of the said jewellery.Guyana Times understands that the ex-cop and his accomplice were captured in Festival City, Georgetown.However, further investigations carried out by ranks of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID), in collaboration with detectives in Linden, revealed that the motor car in which the men were found during their arrest was identified as being stolen during a robbery at Better Hope, East Coast Demerara (ECD).The Police, in a statement, disclosed that even though the victim’s vehicle engine and chassis numbers corresponded with his registration, a purportedly fake registration was produced by one of the suspects for the said vehicle.The two suspects are scheduled to be placed on several identification parades within the next few days in relation to several carjackings.
Lionel Messi insists he has no intention of leaving Barcelona, branding speculation linking with him a move to the Premier League as “lies”.Stories have circulated in the Spanish press in recent weeks of Barca being in crisis with claims that many players, including Messi, were unhappy with coach Luis Enrique’s tactics and coaching methods.That led to speculation that Messi’s stellar career at the Nou Camp could be coming to an end, with big-spending Chelsea and Manchester City both linked with potential bids for the Argentina superstar.Barca president Josep Maria Bartomeu responded to those reports by insisting that Messi and Luis Enrique were going nowhere while Chelsea assistant coach Steve Holland also poured cold water on the possibility of a move to Stamford Bridge.And now Messi has spoken out, criticising those he feels are out to unsettle the Catalan giants.“I don’t demand anything for me to stay because I have no intention of leaving anywhere,” he told Barca TV.“I’ve heard stories I’ve spoken to Chelsea or City, that’s all lies.”He added: “I’ve heard so many things. There have been things said in the past that I have bad relationships with (Pep) Guardiola, (Samuel) Eto’o, Bojan, Ibra (Zlatan Ibrahimovic), that’s not true.“I never asked for them to get rid of the coach or anybody. That’s not true, I would never do that.“It’s a bit bad because the stories came from here in Barcelona from people who are supposed to be supporters of the club, not from Madrid as in other times, people who want to damage the club. More than ever we have to be united.“They try to make out that I run the club, I’m just another player in the squad like my team-mates. I don’t make decisions, I don’t want to make decisions.”Messi was speaking after leading his side to a convincing 3-1 win over title rivals Atletico Madrid.He helped create Neymar’s opener and Luis Suarez’s goal before half-time, before scoring the third late on and killing off Atleti’s hopes of a comeback after Mario Mandzukic’s penalty – which Messi had conceded after tripping Jesus Gamez.His attentions will now turn to the Ballon d’Or ceremony in Zurich on Monday but the four-time winner admitted his chances of picking up the prestigious award for a fifth time were slim.“Being realistic, I think it will be difficult,” conceded Messi, who is one of the three finalists along with Real Madrid striker Cristiano Ronaldo and Bayern Munich goalkeeper Manuel Neuer.“We are going to enjoy the gala. Cristiano Ronaldo and Neuer have both had fantastic years. One has won the Cup and the Champions League and scored lots of goals, the other has had a great year winning the World Cup.” Lionel Messi 1
“Each of these measures is relatively small,” air resources board Chairwoman Mary Nichols said. “But they target sectors that would not necessarily be” otherwise targeted for reducing greenhouse gases. Nichols said other regulations are under consideration but not ready to be formally proposed. Possibilities include forcing cement makers to increase energy efficiency and allowing them to change the mix of materials they use. The far more daunting challenge of the global warming law will be slashing emissions from cars and power plants – the two biggest sources of greenhouse gases. “We’re going to need need big, transformative solutions, but we also need to grab some of the low-hanging fruit,” said Jason Barbose, a global warming expert for Environment California. “This is the low-hanging fruit.” firstname.lastname@example.org (916) 441-4603 160Want local news?Sign up for the Localist and stay informed Something went wrong. Please try again.subscribeCongratulations! You’re all set! Reaction from some of the targeted industries was muted. That may be partly because details were scant: state regulators released only one-line summaries of the rules they are mulling. Specific regulations, which would take effect in 2010, will follow in the coming months, they said. One proposal would require the semiconductor industry to cut emissions of carbon dioxide-rich PFCs, or perfluorocarbons. But many semiconductor firms have already significantly reduced their use of the ingredient, said Margaret Bruce of the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, which represents high-tech companies. “They’ve already done a tremendous amount of work phasing out these products,” said Bruce, the group’s environmental program director. “That doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns or there might be a challenge to it, but none of our members have brought it to our attention.” Other ideas the resources board said it plans to pursue would require trucks and trailers to be retrofitted so they are more aerodynamic, and allow docked ships to shut off auxiliary engines by plugging into shoreside electrical outlets. Another proposal would make auto technicians check tire pressure, which can affect gas mileage, when they do oil changes or other repairs. SACRAMENTO – Environmental regulators on Thursday proposed a slate of new emissions rules for the semiconductor, trucking and port industries – measures designed to kick-start the state’s compliance with an ambitious greenhouse gas reduction law. The new rules, which would go into effect in 2010, are among the first steps the state plans to take under AB 32, the far-reaching global warming legislation that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed last year. The measures released Thursday by the state Air Resources Board represent just a sliver of the overall reductions needed to reach the law’s greenhouse gas targets – a roughly 25 percent reduction by 2020 – but environmentalists nonetheless said the proposals represent a solid step forward. “This is just the start. We’re going to need a whole package of reductions to get there,” said Devra Wang, who works on energy issues for the Natural Resources Defense Council. “These are some great measures to get us going.”
Naomh MhuireTraining for under 6s under 8s and under 10s continues on Saturday mornings at the banks from 10am – 11am. The Seniors and Reserves had their last home game in the league at the weekend at home to N. Brid. Both teams recorded good wins. The result means that the seniors are probably in a playoff to remain in Division 2 with the opposition to be decided based on remaining games to be played. Playoff probably weekend of the 10th/11th November.Peil na mBan; The u16 girls play the county final on Tuesday 30th Oct in Termon at 3.30pm v St Eunans, Ádh Mhor dó na Cailini. Great work altogether for many years by Bridanna, Seamus Rodgers and others in promoting Scór as an important part of the GAA. It’s great to have a venue such as the Aislann to host County Scór rounds but without the work of Bridanna and Seamus this tradition would have suffered. Excellent night just past with the youth from all the clubs still willing and proud to carry on a great tradition of music, dance, poetry, etc. Comhghairdeas le gach duine.Lotto details for week 24th October. Jackpot 500 euro. No jackpot winner. There were 2 match3; Peggy Sharkey, Bun na mBeann. Paul Boyle, Loch am Iuir. Numbers were 7-12-17-24. Jackpot starts this week again at 500 euro and as saying goes – if you’re not in you cannot win. Next 1OO CLUB Draw is on Wed. 31st in Caislean Óir, sellers get your subs in on time to the co-ordinator. Check out details on www.naomhmhuire.ie. GAA NEWS: NAOMH MHUIRE CLUB NOTES was last modified: October 30th, 2012 by StephenShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window) Tags:Naomh Mhuire GAA Club notes
Latest Premier League NEWS possible standings Olivier Giroud has suggested he could be at Chelsea for another year 1 Oxlade-Chamberlain suffers another setback as Klopp confirms serious injury smart causal Every current Premier League club’s best kit from the past decade REVEALED Which teams do the best on Boxing Day in the Premier League era? Premier League Team of the Season so far, including Liverpool and Leicester stars silverware Son ban confirmed as Tottenham fail with appeal to overturn red card REVEALED Where Ancelotti ranks with every Premier League boss for trophies won The powerful striker arrived in the Premier League in 2012, joining the Gunners from Montpellier.After five-and-a-half years in north London, he moved west and has since scored three goals in 16 Premier League outings for Chelsea. huge blow no dice shining How the Premier League table could change after the Boxing Day fixtures England’s most successful clubs of the past decade, according to trophies won Olivier Giroud has hinted he could be set to extend his stay at Chelsea, despite rumours of a possible exit beginning to circulate.The World Cup winner left London rivals Arsenal in the January transfer window and signed on an 18-month deal. Giroud also has the option of another 12 months but, with his playing time limited under new boss Maurizio Sarri, it has been suggested that he could leave the club.But now the 31-year-old, who is yet to start a Premier League game this season, says he might yet stay.“I still have one year of my contract plus an optional year in option,” he is quoted as saying by Telefoot.“I spoke with the management, which is currently in favour of this additional year.”
Glenswilly hung on to nudge out Kilcar in the first of today’s quarter finals in the senior championships.In a tightly-contested game, the men form the Glen won by the narrowest of margins 0-8 to 0-7.Malin, Killybegs and Glenswilly are now all through to the Semi Finals of the RTE Raidió na Gaeltachta Senior Football Championship. The last Quarter Final between Gaoth Dobhair and Ardara will be in O’Donnell Park, Letterkenny, at 6.15pm today, with the draw for the Semi Finals straight after the game.GAA NEWS – GLENSWILLY JOIN KILLYBEGS AND MALIN IN SENIOR CHAMPIONSHIP SEMI-FINALS was last modified: September 15th, 2013 by StephenShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window) Tags:GenswillykilcarKillybegsMalinSenior championship
A college student’s Biblical faith could not survive a geology lesson that seemed to offer convincing proof that the earth was old – much older than the Bible said it was. This test of his faith was a tipping point. He began to question the Bible, and ended up becoming a prominent evolutionist. His books and articles present a halfway sympathetic view of his former creationist friends, but he is convinced now that science has disproved the Bible and established the truth of evolution. But now, the rest of the story: that evidence that challenged his faith back then has since been shown to be wrongly interpreted – so wrong, in fact, that even secular geologists now agree with the creationist interpretation. The man is Ron Numbers, now a professor of the history of science and medicine at the University of Wisconsin. The geology lesson was about the fossil forests in Yellowstone. In the 1970s, geologists taught that what looked like 30 separate forests had grown on top of each other, one at a time, only to be buried by periodic volcanic eruptions. A sign at Specimen Ridge in the park explained this as a matter of fact. Estimates ranged from 20,000 years minimum to 30,000, or 50,000 years or more were required – in any case, far more than a conservative Genesis timeframe could allow. On May 18, 1980, an explosive event with profound repercussions for geological science took place. Mt. St. Helens erupted. In one day, this event literally overturned the long-age interpretation of Specimen Ridge. In the Roadside Geology book about Yellowstone sold in the park, geologist William Fritz described his reaction to mudflows he witnessed along the Toutle River in Washington. “It was just like Yellowstone!” he exclaimed. Since that widely-observed natural experiment in catastrophic geology, the work of volcanic mudflows has become the leading explanation for how the Yellowstone fossil forests were emplaced, layers and all. The old sign that explained the old theory to millions of park visitors is long gone. When telling his life story, Ron Numbers has pointed to that premature lesson about the Yellowstone fossil forests taking tens of thousands of years to form as the incident that began turning him away from creationism to evolutionism. Most recently, in an interview in Salon Magazine published January 2, he was asked at what point his ideas about creation began to change. He responded,I wish I knew. There are a few moments that proved crucial for me. I went to Berkeley in the ’60s as a graduate student in history and learned to read critically. That had a profound influence on me. I was also exposed to critiques of young earth creationism. The thing that stands out in my memory as being decisive was hearing a lecture about the fossil forest of Yellowstone, given by a creationist who’d just been out there to visit. He found that for the 30 successive layers you needed — assuming the most rapid rates of decomposition of lava into soil and the most rapid rates of growth for the trees that came back in that area — at least 20,000 to 30,000 years. The only alternative the creationists had to offer was that during the year of Noah’s flood, these whole stands of forest trees came floating in, one on top of another, until you had about 30 stacked up. And that truly seemed incredible to me. Just trying to visualize what that had been like during the year of Noah’s flood made me smile.He went on to describe how he and a fellow Bible-believing student wrestled all night with the implications of this explanation. “Before dawn, we both decided the evidence was too strong,” he said. This was a crucial night for me because I realized I was abandoning … the authority of Genesis.” He did not indicate whether he had ever heard “the rest of the story” about Yellowstone.And thus, an evolutionist professor, who writes books against creationists, was molded – partly but significantly from a flawed interpretation of geological evidence. Ron Numbers is the embodiment of a fable we told in our 11/13/2006 commentary. An evolutionary explanation is presented as a matter of fact; it shakes a student’s faith; the damage is done; he “sees the light” of evolution and becomes a convert. Then, years later, new evidence comes out showing that the creation explanation was trustworthy all along. In both that case and this one, we are not saying that secular geologists have come running back to Genesis confessing their sins and saying the Bible-believers were right. Of course they continue to talk long ages; the Yellowstone eruptions were umpty hundred thousand years ago with multiple episodes, the Nevada eruptions were similarly age-old, etc. (as if they were there with a stopwatch). What’s important to remember is that data does not interpret itself. Look again at the other story links at the end of the 11/13/2006 commentary. Despite geologists’ philosophical commitment to the geologic column and its evolutionary foundation, they continually revise their stories, sometimes overturning them completely, as new evidence comes in (e.g., last week, 01/03/2007). It just so happens that the latest interpretations of the Yellowstone and Nevada deposits are consistent with a catastrophic, flood-geology, young-earth view. As such, they present neither a necessary nor sufficient reason to doubt the trustworthiness of the Bible. The sudden catastrophic model is superior in many respects to the slow-and-gradual model. Since the Bible-believing scientists propounded this idea before it became the new consensus, even when Ron considered it incredible and laughable, and no one took it seriously at the time, you could even say that in this instance the Bible-believing, young-earth creationists have been vindicated.It’s ironic that the old-age view was presented by “a creationist.” Obviously not all creationists accept the Genesis timetable. But creationists who subscribe to an old-earth or theistic-evolution view should ponder the impact of that view on Ron as a student. It did not help him resolve conflicts between the Bible and “science” – it eroded his trust in the Bible completely. Some old-earth creationists like Davis Young have touted the Yellowstone fossil forests as proof positive that the earth could not be fitted into a few thousand years. Now they have egg on their faces. Regardless of one’s position on the age of the earth, one lesson is clear: what science is claiming today is always subject to change. Using today’s consensus to argue against the Bible’s history, which has withstood scrutiny longer than any scientific claim, is risky business and of doubtful support for Biblical worldview construction.Ron Numbers’ view of creationism is more nuanced and sympathetic than that of the typical Darwinist, owing to his personal experience. But since that fateful geology lesson, it appears he began interpreting subsequent scientific claims through a new lens – an evolutionary, materialist lens. One can only wonder how differently his life would have turned out had someone rushed into that class at the end of the lecture, yelling, “Wait! Mt. St. Helens has just erupted, and billions of tons of logs are being deposited in layers along the Toutle River in a matter of hours! It’s just like Yellowstone!” As stated in the 11/13/2006 commentary, unbelief often becomes a deep trench once it starts. It is highly doubtful Ron Numbers would retrace his worldview journey back to that point if someone were to tell him about the paradigm shift at Yellowstone. By this time he has cut too deep a trench to climb out. His reputation among his peers is also on the line. Few people who publish books taking strong positions ever change their minds. The twig is bent; the die is cast. He is no longer the Learnuh, he is the Mosstuh. He has seen the light. Miracles can happen, but the new Yellowstone story is unlikely to make someone who touts the so-called “overwhelming evidence for evolution” change sides at this late date. Pastors, parents, and Christian teachers wanting to prepare students for adulthood should take some sober lessons from this case study. In the first place, Biblical history should be presented as more than just stories. It needs to be shown to correspond to actual historical events. The new Archaeological Study Bible is a great resource to show the correspondence between Biblical history and archaeology and history from other sources. Secondly, Christian students should not be insulated from contradictory ideas. Conflicts are inevitable anyway, so it is very counterproductive to avoid them. Children and teens want to know their beliefs are sound. Instruction about scientific controversies must be age-appropriate, of course, but in Ron’s case, why did it take college age at Berkeley (of all places) for him to discover critical thinking? That should have started before age 10. (Note: “Critical thinking” at liberal universities often becomes imbalanced questioning of traditional values and religious beliefs – see quote by Berkeley law professor Phillip Johnson in the header of the Baloney Detector). It is by facing difficulties head-on that confidence in one’s worldview is built. Like Johnson has often teased, we should teach students more about evolution than the schools want them to hear! A student can’t understand our modern world without understanding Darwinism and evolutionary theory and the best arguments put forth to support it. But, unlike in public schools, they should also get the scientific arguments against it. A vast majority of American citizens believe that. Thirdly, and even more important, students should learn the limits of science. They need to develop a healthy skepticism of the ability of fallible human science to make knowledge claims about the past (or even the present, for that matter).*Ron grew up in a Seventh-Day Adventist church. Though outside the mainstream of Protestant tradition, SDAs are staunch Bible believers. However much his well-meaning parents and teachers might have thought they were protecting students by teaching only the young-earth view and avoiding contradictory scientific views from secular geology and evolutionary biology, it is clear in hindsight that insulation from challenge can backfire. By high school and college age, young adults are questioning the beliefs they were taught as children anyway. We should help them learn how to do it right. Dodging hard questions or making a child feel guilty for doubt is a bad example. It gives the impression that Christianity is anti-intellectual, or too weak to stand up under examination. The great Christian physicist James Clerk Maxwell believed that Christianity was the only system that allowed full and free investigation, without sacred spots that were off limits to scrutiny. Chuck Colson and Nancy Pearcey gave a memorable example of facing controversy in chapter 5 of their book How Now Shall We Live? (Tyndale, 1999). They portrayed a father confronted by his daughter’s questions about evolution. He didn’t have ready answers at the time. But he did a brave thing that made an impression on her: he answered, “I don’t know, but I’ll find out.” And he let her know he was willing to lay his own faith on the line to find answers. So with his daughter, he did a research project on the evidence for creation and taught her more than just answers to her specific questions: he taught her that a Christian need not be afraid of investigating the evidence. He showed her that the way to handle a doubt is to confront it with research and honest analysis of both sides of a controversy.If Ron Numbers had left the safety of church and home armed with critical thinking skills and an arsenal of sound strategies to consider skeptical claims fairly, how much different would his life had been? It’s hard to say. Some students will rebel for other reasons: perhaps, a rationalization to explore their lusts, or a desire to fit in with a peer group. It appears, though, that Ron has maintained a soft spot for his childhood worldview, as if nostalgic for it. Some ardent anticreationists grew up in a church but were completely unprepared for the allure of evolutionary propaganda. They not only embraced it readily, but became ardent foes of Christianity. E. O. Wilson and Michael Shermer come to mind. From Ron Numbers’ own testimony, though, it seems he and his friend sincerely wanted to keep their faith. They respected truth and yet were conflicted by what appeared to be solid evidence against what they had been taught. A solid education in handling difficulties and controversies honestly and critically is good insurance against sudden challenges by conflicting ideas.It goes without saying that bad beliefs deserve to fall when unable to withstand a challenge. Some Christians fall for foolish ideas that are not supportable from the Bible or scientific evidence, like myths of NASA support for Joshua’s long day, or speculations about where heaven is in the visible universe. Critical thinking demands the honesty to abandon a belief that is no longer defensible after rigorous investigation of the evidence and research into all the well-reasoned points of view. The same standard cuts both ways. When will the evolutionists abandon Haeckel’s; embryos, junk DNA, vestigial organs and the other discredited props for their beliefs? Unfortunately for Ron, his doubts about a young earth were aggravated by legitimate doubts about the credibility of SDA’s prophetess Ellen White – a writer no other Christian groups consider authoritative. This contributed to him tossing the whole religious package altogether. Most SDAs are very congenial and sincere people, but any Christian who gets too closely tied to one particular sect or denomination should take warning. Beware if you belong to any group that becomes ingrown and isolated, trusts only its own material and shuns fellowship with other true Christians in other denominations. Sectarianism can pose a setup for rejection of all Christianity by the young when maybe the fault is with unusual teachings or practices of the denomination, not the Bible itself. The more a church, tradition, or a strong leader becomes the authority rather than the Bible itself, the greater the risk.Science is a search for truth, but it is not the truth. It is limited in its domain (the observable world). It is done by fallible humans. Science is tentative at best, and often wrong. There are deep and abiding philosophical doubts about the ability of mere mortals to comprehend reality by our senses with any confidence that what we deem scientific today is true, necessary, universal and certain.* It bears repeating: evidence does not interpret itself. Over and over in these pages you have read about evolutionists twisting and forcing contradictory evidence into the rigid container of their world view. The same evidence can often bear one or more other equally-valid interpretations. At best, science can claim evidence is consistent with a belief but cannot thereby claim it is True with a capital T. Even the claim of consistency is a judgment call. It often involves willfully ignoring some inconsistent evidence rivals might consider weighty. The next time someone shows you supposedly incontrovertible evidence that the Bible cannot be trusted, and that science has proved it wrong, don’t be so quick to believe the claim. Like the father in the story above, go find out. The Bible has withstood millennia of attacks from all sides. Sometimes you may have to wait a few years for the scientific consensus to shift back, or for a volcano to blow the old theory up in smoke. A world view worth living by is one that is rooted and grounded in conviction that has been tested by challenge. Victorious faith requires both exercise and armor. Young people should go to “world view boot camp” for both. Exercise teaches one how to use the armor, and the sparring of ideas allows quality armor to show its true mettle.(Visited 61 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
Share Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest The Thursday USDA report, as expected, held few surprises. The bean yields in South America continue to grow and could weigh on prices down the road.News of bird flu outbreaks concerned traders this week. It’s still uncertain how widespread the disease will be, so the market is a little shaky. A widespread outbreak would mean lower demand for corn and bean meal.With beans more profitable than corn at current values, many wonder how planted acres will be affected. While bean acre increases are expected, estimates still range between 88 to 90 million acres. I’ve heard experts rationalize that farmers “love to plant corn,” so more acre shifts are unlikely. I agree that most farmers love planting corn, but they also love making money, so that specific rationale is a stretch.Still many farmers can’t or won’t change their crop rotation regardless of the market. Ultimately, it will boil down to a small percent of farmers making changes to their rotation. Realistically we are talking about 2 million of the 180 million acres slated for these two crops. This 1% of acres may seem small, but it would make a huge difference in either corn or bean carryout in either direction. This unknown is making market predictions difficult. Market ActionA previously placed “wish order” to sell a $4.50 Dec call if it hits 19.5 cents for 5% of my production was hit last week. This is the chart of the $4.50 Dec call value since Oct 1st.On Feb. 28, due to the RFS mandate rumor the call value that had been ranging between 12-17 cents since harvest, shot up to 19.5 cents for five minutes after the news broke. What does this mean?If corn is above $4.50 on Thanksgiving, I have to sell for $4.50 and keep 19.5 cents ($4.695 total).If corn is below $4.50 on Thanksgiving, I keep the 19.5 cents to use on another trade in the future.I’m happy with this trade. Futures haven’t hit $4.50 in the last year. So, while I hope futures rally, exceeding $4.50 will be difficult. Even if it happens, I doubt it will last long. Either way, I will get to keep an additional 19.5 cents. One downside to this trade would be a big drop in prices, because I don’t have any downside protection, but that wasn’t the goal of this trade. The benefits of having wish orders in placeSo many farmers miss out on opportunities by not having a marketing plan with orders in place. I was able to take advantage of the quick spike in call value because I planned ahead and had orders in place to take advantage of potential opportunities. This is another example of how savvy farmers can benefit from a market surprise. Selling hope and timeOften some “experts” in the industry suggest that farmers should “look for a possible ownership opportunity.” This “advice” doesn’t make any sense. When farmers have unpriced grain in storage or the field growing, they already have ownership. They don’t need MORE corn while prices are low, they need the market to rally so they can sell the corn they have or will have. More corn only adds more risk to their farm operation. In essence, this advice is telling farmers, who are already speculators, to double down. Buying hopeMost often, farmers buy calls because they HOPE the market will go up. In truth, I’ve seen very few times when farmers have made a lot of money buying calls. Most of the time they are lucky to breakeven and many times they lose.My marketing plan does not include “buying hope,” but instead I “sell hope.” Certainly not on all of my bushels, but I do for some. Basically, I get paid for selling hope to somebody else.Farmers need to remember that 66% of the time it will be a normal year. During normal years, prices well above breakeven points are unlikely for an extended period of time. I try to position my marketing strategies where I can take advantage of opportunities assuming trend line expectations while understanding how I will be affected by unpredictable market variations. Buying timeWhen buying options the longer length of time until the option expires makes it worth more. More time = more chances for market movement.Similar to hope, I don’t want to buy time. It’s expensive because it’s in finite supply and everyone wants more of it. Instead I determine what price I want, then I optimize how much (time) value I can get for that option and then I sell it. Understanding volatilityFarmers are sometimes advised to not sell calls because volatility is low. Volatility basically measures the risk of the size of the market’s movement. The concept of market volatility is extremely complicated and very complex, and concerns speculators and technical traders. This concern can then be heightened by farmers who don’t understand it, paralyzing them from doing anything. However, in my opinion market volatility’s effect on farmers is far less than speculators, and really should not be a big factor when deciding to sell calls.Currently volatility on options that expire sooner have lower values. Longer term options (e.g. six months) have mid-range value compared to ranges over the last 12 months. When thinking about volatility, farmers should keep perspective. For instance, a one or two penny difference in the price of an option can change the volatility value significantly. This kind of variance can affect speculators and technical traders. However, this one- or two-cent volatility variance to farmers isn’t as big of a deal. The reason….speculators don’t HAVE to buy and sell grain, but farmers ALWAYS have to eventually sell their grain. So, I don’t see the rationale in missing out on a potentially good call sell (like the above example of 19.5 cents) because I’m worried about one to two cents of market volatility.I urge farmers to be careful when listening and taking advice from a trader/speculator because most often their goals don’t align with farmers’ goals. Rather farmers need to understand all the potential benefits and concerns of all trades in their grain marketing and feel comfortable with the risk and possible outcome. Buying hope and time is an expense the most farmers can’t afford.Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. 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