Tag Archives: 常州桑拿论坛

Giants finally score after 17 innings, suffer second straight loss to open season

by ,

first_imgSAN DIEGO–In the 136-year history of the franchise, the Giants had never been shut out twice in a row to start a season.History was nearly made at Petco Park on Friday, and the Giants were oh-so-close to being on the wrong side of it.After 17 scoreless innings to open the season, third baseman Evan Longoria finally put the team on the board in 2019 with a solo home run to left field in the top of the ninth. Longoria’s homer was much-needed for a discouraged Giants’ offense, but it was a rare …last_img

Raiders deliver one last gut punch to Oakland — and this one hurt extra bad

by ,

first_imgClick here if you’re unable to view the video or photo gallery on your mobile device.OAKLAND – Playing their last scheduled game in Oakland before the inevitable move to Las Vegas, the Raiders gave fans one more dagger to the ribs on the way out.Jacksonville scored 17 unanswered points after halftime, including a 4-yard touchdown pass from Gardner Minshew to Chris Conley in front of the Black Hole with 31 seconds left, to hand the Raiders a 20-16 loss at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. …last_img

What Is the Temperature of the Earth?

by ,

first_img(Visited 37 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0 The news are all reporting 2014 as the hottest year on record, but no one is asking how such a measurement can be made without bias.“The heat is on: NOAA, NASA say 2014 warmest year on record,” Seth Borenstein states on PhysOrg.  The data videos in the article look pretty conclusive.  But for anyone who thinks scientific conclusions should rest on evidence, not on authority (even prestigious specialty organizations like NOAA and NASA), it might bear examining the question of earth’s temperature from a philosophical viewpoint: How does one measure it?  We can’t put a thermometer under Mother Earth’s tongue.Even when we use a thermometer for a human, we are arbitrarily taking a measurement from one part of the body to the exclusion of others, because we consider it “useful” as a proxy for a person’s health. The reading might be different in the rectum, or the ears, or at the abdomen compared to the extremities. If mouth temperature under the tongue is useful, there is a bit of natural fluctuation around the mean; your temperature is rarely exactly 98.6° F. Scientists know that all measurements involve some degree of error. They use different methods of averaging, such as mean, mode, and median, to select a measurement that is useful for their purposes.The error bars and biases are greatly exacerbated when trying to come up with “a number” that represents a global measurement. For earth’s temperature, consider just a few of the sources of error and bias:Every square mile of the earth’s surface has its own temperature at a given time.  The poles are colder than the equatorial regions.Each point’s temperature is constantly changing.  It’s colder at night than during the day.The temperature varies with height above the surface.  The atmosphere has a temperature profile from ground to stratosphere that, too, is constantly changing.The temperature varies with depth beneath the surface; it’s hotter underground, and colder with depth in the oceans.The weather is constantly changing; air speed and humidity can influence measurements.Surfaces near a thermometer, such as black asphalt or grass, can influence measurements.Each environment has its own thermal inertia.  Some rocks cool down more slowly than other surfaces. The measurement might include some residual heat from the past instead of the current temperature.Humans or machines that read the instruments can make mistakes.There are multiple methods of taking temperature: thermoelectric, mercury and other liquids, or bimetallic strips, for instance. Who decides which type of device to use?If a change in device type is made at a station, or is rolled out at all stations over time, how do measurements with the new device correlate with measurements from the previous device?All recording devices must be calibrated. It becomes difficult to ensure equal calibration for monitoring stations around the world. Some countries could be more careless. Some stations might drop out from damage, neglect, or vandalism.It’s impossible to gather data from every point on the globe, so decisions have to be made about where to put monitoring stations.It’s impossible to gather data continuously from a given monitoring station, so decisions have to be made about what times of day to collect data points.  Should it be daily highs and lows? Or should it be temperatures at noon and midnight? Who decides?Earth’s climate has natural cyclic variations over multiple time scales, some of them poorly known or unknown.This is not a complete list. So what is the “temperature of the earth”? There is no such thing.  There is “a” temperature at “a” place, at “a” time, under certain environmental conditions, at a given humidity and wind speed, as measured by an artificial device that may or may not be calibrated properly and working properly.  By itself, a temperature reading signifies nothing about climate, because it’s trying to measure a moving target in a very small location on a huge planet.It should be obvious that human bias enters every factor. Someone has to decide where to put the monitoring stations, what device to use, and what data points to collect at what times. When the data are in, the numbers must be crunched and the error mitigated according to some model or method. A scientist or a program based on a model may decide to toss out data that appear anomalous according to someone’s criteria, but what if those data points are meaningful? Models and methods are human constructs, devised for their “usefulness” – but even so, models are only simulations of reality, not reality itself. It’s impossible to know all the factors that could influence the results.Much more troublesome is trying to link temperature trends (if they are meaningful at all) to causes.  Seth Borenstein’s article is adamant that humans have caused 2014 to be the hottest year on record. Who could possibly know that? Pictures of smokestacks at power plants can’t prove it; that titillates the emotions by visualization, perhaps, but isolated pictures are not global evidence. Recently, for instance, it was reported that more methane (a potent greenhouse gas) was emitted by earthquakes than previously thought (Science Magazine).  Hardly a month goes by without some new factor being reported that could alter the models’ conclusions.  Here’s one from a few days ago on PhysOrg: “Mountain system artificially inflates temperature increases at higher elevations,” suggesting that “warming in the mountains of the western U.S. likely is not as large as previously supposed.” Here’s another one announced on PhysOrg 11 days ago: “A new NASA-led study shows that tropical forests may be absorbing far more carbon dioxide than many scientists thought, in response to rising atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas.” Examples like this could be multiplied.Sociologists of science probably find it intriguing that the “climate of opinion” on anthropogenic climate change has divided sharply between the “consensus” and the “deniers”.  Both have well-qualified experts to point fingers across the aisle. The point of this analysis is not to take sides, but to point out, from a philosophical perspective, that such answers cannot be known by the methods of science.  There are too many variables.  The error bars are too large.  There are too many unknowns and unknowables. Scientists don’t fully understand all the factors and feedback mechanisms, like clouds, ocean currents and forests, that could alter the models significantly.  Human biases are unavoidable.For example, consensus scientists were caught red-faced when having to admit a 15-year “warming hiatus” since about 1995. They rushed to rescue their conclusions (i.e., about warming being man’s fault) by looking for ad hoc explanations. Here’s one that appeared a few days ago on PhysOrg: “The ‘warming hiatus’ that has occurred over the last 15 years has been partly caused by small volcanic eruptions.”  The article claims, “a series of small 21st century volcanic eruptions deflected substantially more solar radiation than previously estimated.” But this explanation, while giving the consensus a story to tell the press, raises more questions than it answers. What other factors are substantially greater “than previously estimated”? If small volcanoes have this much power to influence the climate in short order, why aren’t the alarmists blaming the volcanoes instead of the power plants?  And if smoke and dust lower the temperature, why isn’t the solution to throw even more soot from power plants into the atmosphere?Consensus scientists know and believe that climate swings greater than anything observed today have occurred naturally in the past. So the current debate reduces to identifying what factors out of large number of possibilities, including unknowns and unknown unknowns, tend to indict human beings for a trend that might be purely natural. Experts in scientific ethics might well ask, also, why warming is such a worrisome thing, if animals and plants thrived in the past under even greater climate swings.When scientific institutions (or consensus deniers) take leave of their empirical modesty and become emotional advocates for causes that cannot be rationalized by scientific methods, even in principle, it’s a good time to ask whether ideology or politics is influencing their behavior.  This goes for Clarke and Lawler, who passionately argued on The Conversation that people need to trust experts, otherwise they are being anti-intellectual. Some questions, though, are not questions of science; they are questions of philosophy about science. Many scientists are not trained to think critically about the limitations of science.Again, this is not to take sides in a “heated” debate, but to step back and look at the debate philosophically. Professor Jeffrey Kasser, in his Teaching Company series on Philosophy of Science, tells a somewhat humorous story about the difficulty of objectively measuring a property of a material, namely “fragility.” It seems simple at first; you hit something, and if it breaks, it’s fragile, right? But what if it breaks only when hit hard, or with a certain kind of object? At the end of a long train of factors to consider, he ends with having to define fragility with a long list of arbitrary methods: you have to hit the object with a standard hammer with a standard whack at a given angle, etc. etc.Even taking the temperature of a room could require a long list of directions that some human had to decide: use a certain kind of thermometer, at a certain height off the floor, holding it with gloves instead of bare hands, and so forth. But then, what kind of gloves, and how thick? Does the measurer have to wear a white lab coat? There are an infinite number of conditions that might change the measurement. We know some are silly and unlikely to affect the outcome, such as what the measurer had for breakfast. But those criteria cannot be defined scientifically; they are arbitrary, based on what the people who define the method consider useful. No human can know all the factors that come into play. And that’s just for measuring a small room. How much more defining the “temperature of the earth.” We hope you see that such a measurement is meaningless!Interestingly, temperature itself is a vexed question. What is it? There are several definitions; motion of molecules, that which feels hot to the touch, that which raises mercury a certain number of millimeters in a tube, etc. But what is temperature? The operationalist Bridgman said, “Temperature is what thermometers measure” (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy). The mathematician Fourier forswore the debate about heat, opting instead to offer an equation that describes what heat does, not what it is.  Often in science, the deeper the questions you ask about seemingly simple phenomena, the more puzzling they become.  Even Newton did not deign to feign what gravity is.  He only described what it does, and what calculations you can make with an equation.Finally, we should think about scientific ethics. Ostensibly, it is the job of a scientist to describe and explain a phenomenon, not to advocate for what politicians should do about it.  So why are all these climate scientists like Michael Mann and his friends warming up to U.N. climate summits and telling them what must be done?  You may agree with him, and it is his right, like any other person’s, to have political beliefs. But to claim a belief about climate change is scientific goes far beyond the ability of science to know. The take-home lesson from this entry is that science is not objective; it is profoundly human, and humans are often driven by ideology.  Don’t be influenced by majorities and pictures and graphs, when the underlying data cannot be conclusive. If it’s consensus, it’s not science; if it’s science, it is not consensus.last_img read more

From SMCEDU: 5 Steps to Make the Social Web Work for Higher Ed

by ,

first_imgA new offshoot of Social Media Club, the Social Media Club Education Connection (SMCEDU) is a Chris Heuer-led organization intended to promote social media in higher education curricula.At a kickoff event tonight in Richmond, Virginia, I got to participate in a panel discussion and hear questions from an audience of college students and professors. One of the questions posed was how those in academia can best put the social web to work for themselves. Far beyond Facebook and LinkedIn, how can this community harness the Internet to be smarter, more efficient, and more productive? Read on for our top five ideas.1) Use Twitter to find your network. Facebook is Becoming Less Personal and More Pro… Finally, once you’re comfortably participating in the conversation and you’re part of a very real community of experts, educators, and students in your field of interest, realize that your journey toward technological proficiency has just begun. The Internet is in a constant state of flux, and learning how to leverage the social web for academic benefit is an ongoing exercise. There are many resources for finding new weapons to add to your digital arsenal; we’re sure lots of helpful pointers will come from others in your community. But also, keep an eye on the techies, who are always testing and recommending new products and apps.Check sites such as ReadWriteStart, AppUseful, and oneforty every now and then to see if there’s a better mousetrap than the ones you might currently be using. Stay open-minded and flexible; be willing to try anything three times.The social web means so much more to academia than finding out which students were really sick on exam day and which just went to a kegger the night before. It also means a lot more than a static resume and a stagnant list of useless “connections.” Social web apps, when used intelligently, can make us all as brilliant and resourceful as the brightest stars in our networks, fostering real-world value and reinforcing learning. If there’s one thing students in particular need to worry about, it’s Google. Social accounts are fine and dandy to have, but prospective employers are searching for candidates by name when making interviewing and hiring decisions, as was made abundantly clear by a professional recruiter on tonight’s panel. Right now, Facebook might have a search engine monopoly on your name; unless that account is the best representation of you, a FirstNameLastName.com website might be a good idea. Here’s our list of four what-you-see-is-what-you-get website builders that don’t require much or any coding knowledge. You can also use some of the blogging resources mentioned in the next section. Once your site is up, link back to it from all your social profiles to help boost your site’s place in search results.4) Create content. In almost any field of study, from sociology to physics to arts to media, educators and students can find a group of experts on Twitter, engaging in debate, posting relevant links, sharing their most recent work, and answering questions. With its asymmetrical follower model, this network allows you to keep up with leaders and organizations in your industry of choice without their having to follow you in return. There are lots of tools for finding topic-specific experts on Twitter. WeFollow and Mr. Tweet are two popular applications, and Twitter app store oneforty can provide even more resources for discovering an existing network and staying up to date.2) Use feeds to stay informed about news, events, and conversations. Now that you know your network and its key players, you’re staying informed in your field, and you’ve got a decent start in representing yourself online, it’s time to start giving back. Whether you’ve got expertise to share or simply more questions to ask, you should be creating content. Tweeting is a great and engaging place to start; many professional and mentoring relationships have begun with a simple @reply. But you also need to blog, create videos, and/or post images or audio to your website.Not only is this good for SEO, which will help when the aforementioned recruiters start Googling you; it’s also essential for deeper participation in the conversation happening all around you online. If visual arts are your thing, for example, a Flickr account is a must, and it’s probably a good idea to post any images you create on a separate blog, as well. Ideally, your content should tie in with your FirstNameLastName.com website. Depending on the type of content you choose to create, you might want to look at WordPress, Blogger, Tumblr, or Posterous. Post content regularly, and check out this Slate post with tips from some of the most famous bloggers online.5) Be an early adopter and refine your digital toolkit. The Dos and Don’ts of Brand Awareness Videos Related Posts Tags:#Social Web#web jolie odell Guide to Performing Bulk Email Verification Once you’ve found your network, you may notice that a lot of these individuals and groups maintain blogs. Do a Google search, and focus on finding blogs that speak specifically to your field of interest. For every niche, no matter how obscure, someone out there is curating content. There are wind turbine blogs, turtle breeding blogs, biomedical engineering blogs, economics blogs – you get the gist. Staying updated in your field is as simple as spending 20 minutes a day online once you know how to use feeds.For those users with a good grasp of RSS, feed readers such as Google Reader can bring clarity, organization, and efficiency to the formerly painful process of staying informed. But even if you don’t know RSS from a hole in the ground, there are sites that will allow you to simply put together lists of websites to track, or even bring you news feeds just based on a particular topic. We recommend checking out Lazyfeed and Guzzle.it for getting news by keyword or topic, and for the visually oriented, we also suggest these two dead-simple visual feed readers.3) Build your website. A Comprehensive Guide to a Content Auditlast_img read more

Pacio unfazed by last-minute opponent change

by ,

first_imgPhoto by Mark Giongco/INQUIRER.netJoshua Pacio is likely on his way to a title shot if he goes on to hurdle his Chinese opponent Min Qiang Lan in the co-main event of ONE: Global Superheroes on Friday.But as much as the Filipino strawweight contender wants to get his hands on the gold, he doesn’t want to get ahead of himself especially with a big bout coming up against a dangerous opponent.ADVERTISEMENT NEXT BLOCK ASIA 2.0 introduces GURUS AWARDS to recognize and reward industry influencers Read Next Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC Kammuri turning to super typhoon less likely but possible — Pagasa Injured Nadal out of Australian Open; Cilic into semifinals LATEST STORIES Typhoon Kammuri accelerates, gains strength en route to PH Slow and steady hope for near-extinct Bangladesh tortoises 2 ‘newbie’ drug pushers fall in Lucena stingcenter_img Globe Business launches leading cloud-enabled and hardware-agnostic conferencing platform in PH “Of course, I want the belt but for me, right now, I’m not thinking about getting a title shot just yet,” Pacio told INQUIRER.net in Filipino on Tuesday.“I still need to gain more experience for me to get to the level of champions,” he added.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSLillard, Anthony lead Blazers over ThunderSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutPacio is supposed to fight Pongsiri Misatit, but the Thai was forced to withdraw due to an injury.ONE announced the opponent change on Friday, giving Pacio’s camp less than two weeks to adjust their game plan. Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. ONE CEO believes Joshua Pacio won the fight PLAY LIST 00:52ONE CEO believes Joshua Pacio won the fight04:36Joshua Pacio is the new ONE Strawweight world champion00:50Trending Articles01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City MOST READ View comments John Lloyd Cruz a dashing guest at Vhong Navarro’s wedding But Pacio isn’t concerned with the sudden change.“I’m not worried because fighters in the international stage are expected to cope up with the changes and that’s how fighters’ mentality should be,” Pacio said.Pacio said there are similarities between his initial foe and replacement in terms of their strengths which is striking, but added that Lan is the more lethal striker than the two.“We saw a video of one of Lan’s fights and he’s better than Pongsiri in striking so I prepared really hard in training and that’s what I’m going to showcase on Friday.”ADVERTISEMENTlast_img read more